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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the current competition is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's facing five other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still