🔗 Share this article

During the race for the White House in 2016, Viktor Orbán emerged as the only head of an EU nation to back Donald Trump. This backing was hardly surprising, given Mr Orbán's embrace of controversial notions including population replacement concept and his restrictions against media freedom. Commentators point out that Mr Orbán more or less wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon once praising him as a precursor to Trump.

Campaign Assistance Before Hungary's Polls

Recently, with key votes in Hungary just half a year off, the American leader offered electoral assistance. While Orbán aims for a fifth straight win leading a country he calls an non-liberal system, his Fidesz party is behind in the polls. An official trip to the US capital yielded more than a few signed Maga baseball caps; it secured far more significant campaign boosts.

Energy Exemptions and Financial Shields

Although earlier admonishing European nations on the need to stop all energy imports from the Russian Federation, and warning of sanctions against countries still to import Russian energy, Mr Trump agreed to provide a particular exclusion for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian crude. Per the Hungarian leader, the Trump administration also promised to offer a economic protection to Budapest if it encounters any future difficulties, given that Brussels is still blocking large sums from the EU to Hungary on grounds of rule-of-law breaches.

The details of this agreement seem vague. But Mr Trump illustrated his readiness to help out like-minded partners after the United States provided a a $20 billion loan to Javier Milei, Argentina's president. Even though the Hungarian PM was unable to arrange a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Washington talks nevertheless was a profitable day’s work.

EU Concerns and International Implications

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention probably further underlined the strategic importance of the upcoming vote, before which the opposition candidate, Magyar, holds a clear edge in the polls. European leaders are accustomed not to look for principled consistency from the US government, and are familiar with the US president’s attempts to undermine the European Union. However the waiver for Hungary – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase US gas and nuclear energy – blatantly weakens EU aspirations to end imports of Russian energy by the target date.

• Starting in 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian petroleum, Hungary and Slovakia, have provided well over £10bn to the Russian military campaign.
• Meanwhile, Budapest has consistently deployed the blocking vote to impede moves in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As Europe strives to develop a cohesive plan for supporting Kyiv, and bolstering its position in any upcoming peace talks, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the negotiating table remains a significant obstacle.

Rival's Approach

Péter Magyar has steered clear of promising a significant change on the war in Ukraine, and directed his efforts on home affairs, while stressing the need for the country to begin operating as a productive EU partner. After years of so many years of trolling, Brussels can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to basic EU values, like the upholding of minority rights and the autonomy of civic groups, has long been a deeply troubling issue for the bloc. His continued obstructionism toward Ukraine risks undermining its long-term safety.